When you are playing a night of Daily fantasy baseball, it is important to keen in on the pitchers that you are selecting. This is because pitching is your most consistent source of fantasy production that you have. With hitters, they have an average of four plate appearances where they have the opportunity to score you fantasy points.
However, with pitching, every batter faced for the pitcher will offer the opportunity to gain, or lose if you are not careful. Fantasy points. Below are a few idea to keep in mind when you are selecting your pitchers on a nightly basis on DFS sites such as FanDuel and Draftkings.
Baseball Betting Tips
When it comes to selecting pitchers, never get too cute with it. If you see that one of your pitchers has a negative score, your night is probably over, regardless of your bats.
Depending on the site that you play on, you might want to contemplate different sets of pitchers. Draftkings puts their pitcher emphasis on guys that can get strikeouts, and they are priced accordingly. However, the extra price is worth paying up for, especially if we are talking about Clayton Kershaw. FanDuel, on the other hand, puts much power toward pitchers that can get the win.
Of course, pitchers that can get the win are also important on Draftkings, and guys that can strike batters out are important on FanDuel. However, these are just things to look for when you are playing on each site.
To find pitchers that are likely to get the win is simple, just refer to the Vegas lines. Whether it be through picking some favorites, or identifying a good pitcher with reverse line movement, Vegas is a fantastic, and quick way to see which pitchers are most in line to get the win on a particular night.
As far as strikeouts, though, this is where the statistical fun begins. Now that you have identified those pitchers that you like to get the win tonight, now it is time to see which of them can get the job done by striking guys out. I usually look for guys who, at the very least, strikeout 20% of batters faced. After eliminating the guys that have a lower number than that, then I check to see the opponent’s strikeout percentages.
Teams such as the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros are prone to striking out a ton in a given game. So if conditions are right, I might just use a pitcher that is facing one of those teams.
When looking for pitchers to use, also take into account the xFIP of pitchers as well as the ISO and wOBA of batters. xFIP stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. A fancy way of saying that this number is a more predictive metric than something like ERA.
Avoid any pitcher that has an xFIP rating of four or more, as this is considered below average. To find all of these stats and data, I highly suggest going to Fangraphs or ATS Stats. They have every baseball metric that you would ever hope to find.