| Go Against Pitchers (2008-04-28) |
| Sports Handicappers Betting Articles:Dave Cokin |
| April 28, 2008
Go Against Pitchers
by Dave Cokin
There's always been a shortage of pitching, either in the starting rotation, in long relief or in the closer's role. Like the commodities market, top nothing pitching are rare gems, like gold or sapphires, able to command top dollar in offseason bidding wars. And we're seeing why now. There's simply a dearth of quality starters. This may make for some bad teams, but also for excellent wagering opportunities.
Weak pitching can mean high scoring games, ones going over the total. While a lot of focus is placed on good pitchers taking the hill and how they might fare, remember that the opposite is also true in the betting world: It's just as profitable to go against bad pitchers. The Detroit Tigers started the season 2-10 mainly because the pitching staff was terrible, giving up double digit runs three times. They've had to hit their way out of it, recently winning 4 in a row by scoring 42 runs in those four games.
But as we've seen with the Yankees the last seven years, offense can't carry the load. The Tigers just lost 2 out of 3 at home to the Angels, with all three games going under the total. The offense cooled off and the pitching wasn't strong enough to get them wins, despite being favored in all three games. Justin Verlander is now 1-3 with a 6.50 ERA in six starts, disturbing numbers. Although Verlander says he's fine: "The best stuff I've had all year," he said. "Raising my arm slot a little bit has helped get my stuff back to the way it should be. You see me out there with that kind of stuff on a nightly basis, most times I'm going to be successful. My breaking ball was sharper, fastball had better life on it, everything was better."
One of the best examples of going against a terrible pitcher took place this weekend. I had a play on the Cincinnati Reds as small road favorites at San Francisco. I like the Reds' young pitcher Edinson Volquez, who has been on a roll. But the selection was just as much against his opponent, Barry Zito. Zito has been horrendous at 0-6 with a 7.53 ERA. The numbers are simply frightful, allowing 41 hits and 15 walks in 28 innings. That's an average line of 5 innings pitched, 7 hits, 3 walks, 5 runs allowed. It's even worse when you factor in that he's throwing in the National League.
The result was an easy win for the Reds, a 10-1 laugher. Zito threw 39 pitches in a six-run first. He became the third major-league pitcher in the last 52 years to fall to 0-6 before May 1, Dave Stewart (1984) and Mike Maroth (2003) being the others. At $126 million, this might be the worst free agent signing in history. He wasn't an ace last season with the Giants, but he wasn't this bad, either, at 11-13 with a 4.53 ERA. Even when he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA to win the 2002 Cy Young Award, he was 1-2, 4.81 in April. He may yet turn it around at age 29, but at this point he is an easy go-against.
What's been great about this baseball start is so many well known pitchers struggling, such as Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, A.J. Burnett, Ted Lilly, Verlander, Matt Chico, Nate Robertson, Gil Meche, Zito and C.C. Sabathia. At least Sabathia is off a terrific performance, a 1-0 loss to the Yankees. After all, Sabathia was 8-1, with a 2.73 ERA the last three Aprils.
Did you notice the Pirates just released starter Matt Morris? I found it interesting as in his last start I went against him, taking the Phillies as my National League Game of the Month. In my analysis of the game I wrote, "There may not be many more chances to try and beat Matt Morris, so I'm not about to be bashful here. The shopworn Pittsburgh righty is arguably the worst starting pitcher in the game right now." Morris limped through an ugly, laborious 1½ innings against Philadelphia in an 8-4 defeat.
He was 3-4 with 6.10 earned run average in his 11 starts for the Pirates last season, then struggled in spring training through most of his 22½ innings this season. He's 0-4 with a 9.67 earned run average. Morris accounts for about 20 percent of the team's payroll. The Pirates owe Morris, 33, a little more than $10 million, which includes the rest of his 2008 salary and the $1 million contract buyout he had for 2009. Morris walked off the mound to a chorus of boos Saturday night. "I've always said the other team will let you know when you are done," the honest hurler said. Notice that all four of Morris' starts went over the total.
Sure, I feel empathy for the guy. Pitching in the big leagues, like handicapping sports, is a business of ups and downs. One is based on athletic talent, the other on cerebral skills. Both are challenging and not easy to succeed in. Make sure you compile your own list of go-against pitchers. Remember: the money is the same whether you bet ON a good starter or go AGAINST a bad one. |
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