| Dave Cokin's Hardcore Football 9/2/09 (2009-09-02) |
| Sports Handicappers Betting Articles:Dave Cokin |
| Today’s college conference preview on a league that looks as though it could be outstanding this season. The PAC-10 has two teams I feel are can’t miss superpowers, a third team that will possibly be in that category and at least one more school on the brink of big things in 2009.
I think it’s fair to say that most analysts simply put USC at the top of the league when formulating their predictions and then try to figure out how the rest of the league will stack up. It’s tough to find fault with that philosophy, as the Trojans are 82-9 since 2002. Nevertheless, I’m going to go out on the proverbial limb and call for someone else to capture league honors this year, and I’ll also say that USC could be down just a notch this season.
California has a chance to accomplish some great things this season. They have the best RB in the nation in the aptly named Jahvid Best. I think Best actually has an outside shot at a 2000 year season, and I think he’s a cinch for All-American honors and a serious run at the Heisman is he stays healthy. Add in a bevy of talented backups and it’s going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses trying to stop this team’s ground game. If the Golden Bears get just decent QB play, they could very well go 12-0 and end up playing for the mythical title. Two things stand in their way. Cal has to avoid the dreaded flat spots that have cost them dearly in the past. And, of course, they actually have to defeat USC when the Trojans visit Berkeley in early October. If that’s ever going to happen, this is the year.
I’m not about top shed any tears for USC. The Trojans are an incredible program and they just keep reloading year after year. But there are some potential obstacles this season and it would not surprise me to see USC lose two or three games this season. There’s big time talent at QB, but the inexperience factor is real. The injury to WR Ronald Johnson is an early season concern. The defense has just three starters back from last year. And, most importantly, the two toughest tests on the slate are early, and this is a USC entry that figure to be at their best later rather than sooner. I sure won’t be shocked if this team finds a way to win every week, but for once, I think there’s a very good chance USC might not be a cinch to be attending the January BCS party.
Oregon has found its way into several pre-season Top 10 listings. I think they’re getting a little overrated by those analysts, but they’re definitely good and definitely exciting. Jeremiah Masoli is an amazing weapon at QB. LeGarrette Blount was overlooked at times last year, but he had a sensational campaign and should be even better this season. The receiving corps is a little raw, but is loaded with pure talent. My primary concerns with this team are the offensive front and a defense that was very erratic last season and looks a little thin in the trenches. We will find out a great deal about these Ducks this week when they play at Boise State. A win on the blue turf could propel the Ducks to great heights, and they do catch both USC and Cal at home. I have Oregon enjoying another very good campaign, but I’ll only pick them to squeeze out a third place finish in a talented conference.
For some reason, everyone seems to be overlooking Oregon State, and for the life of me, I don’t get it. The Beavers started last season 0-2, but from that point on they were 9-2, and one of those losses was pretty much highway robbery. The Beavers were on the wrong side of a very bad pass interference call that probably cost them the win against Utah, and their only other defeat was the regular season finale, a disastrous effort against Oregon. Fact is, I think this team is underrated. The offense is the best it’s been under Mike Riley. Jacquizz Rodgers is flat out elusive, and tough to boot. I look for the QB play to be improved. The wideout situation is a little dicey, but they should figure that out by the time conference play rolls around. The defense is young, and could take some early lumps, but remember that Riley’s teams always improve as the season progresses. The schedule is very difficult, with USC, Cal and Oregon all on the road. But Oregon State is rock solid and if they jell quickly, they could be considerably better than most observers see them.
UCLA is the mystery team in this year’s PAC-10. The Bruins were just 4-8 last season, and were outside the bowl party for the first time since 2001. But UCLA is clearly on the way back to big things, and that could get started this season. Rick Neuheisel brings back a defense that will be outstanding. The questions for this team are all on offense. The QB play cannot be as bad as it was a year ago. If that’s true, then the running game will get a boost as in ‘08, opposing stop units basically stuffed the box as they had no fear of the UCLA passing game. The OL is likely to be much improved and that should help the Bruins formulate what should be at least a respectable attack. Maybe I’m overrating UCLA and they’re not yet ready, but my guess is that they’ll win at least half their games this year and will get back to a bowl.
Stanford is also a rising star. The biggest task for this school might well be finding a way to keep Jim Harbaugh in Palo Alto past this season. He did a great coaching job as a rookie mentor last year. The Cardinal have a terrific redshirt freshman QB in Andrew Luck, and a wealth of experience back on both sides of the ball. The biggest positive for this team is that they now believe in themselves. It was easy to see how much more positive this team played last year, and they’re a more talented team on paper coming into this season. The non-conference slate is challenging with a trip to Wake Forest plus a home date with Notre Dame. But I like the direction of this program, and I’ll call for Stanford to win seven games and get to their first bowl in nearly a decade.
Arizona finally broke through and got into post-season action for the first time since the late 1990’s Mike Stoops saved his job in the process. The Wildcats actually could have been even better as two of their losses came by a combined three points. But I suspect Arizona may be down just a tad from last season, and that’s big trouble in a league that is on the upswing this year. They’re way down at QB with Willie Tuitama gone, and the offensive line was also hit hard by graduation. The defense will need to step up, and I’m just not sure they’re up to it. I see Arizona’s mid-season home games with UCLA and Stanford determining their fate, and possibly that of their head coach as well.
Arizona State was nationally ranked early last season and poised to achieve big things. But a stunning home loss to UNLV proved to be an unmitigated nightmare for the Sun Devils. They never really recovered and ended up with a losing record. That was a shock considering the pre-season projection for the team. No such lofty expectations this year. ASU will field a sound defensive team, but there are big problems on the offense. Danny Sullivan is the starting QB for now, and he’s not shown that he can cut it at this level. The running game was non-existent last year, and may not get any better despite an experienced offensive front. The problem is under center, as I see opposing defenses loading the box if they aren’t fearful of the pass. I see Arizona State struggling to break even this year.
The unfortunate Ty Willingham regime at Washington has concluded. The Huskies bottomed out last season at 0-12, and aside from what would have been a stunning upset of BYU early in the season, they simply weren’t competitive. Steve Sarkisian is the new head coach and I’m positive the Huskies will be a much improved team this year. They get talented QB Jake Locker back from an injury that cost him most of last year, the running game finally has some talent on hand, and the receivers look good. The offensive line will need time to get cohesive, and that will likely be a problem area early in the season. The defense has almost everyone back and will get much better in a hurry. The UW schedule is a killer as they have LSU and Notre Dame in addition to their league slate. Thus, it’s not likely to be a rags to riches story, and the Huskies will endure their sixth straight losing season. But there’s finally light at the end of the tunnel.
And that leaves Washington State. Not only are the Cougars far and away the worst team in the league, they’re one of the worst teams in all of major college football. I’m convinced Wazzou could move to the Sun Belt and still end up with a losing record. Plus, this season has started badly without a single game being played as two of the defensive secondary’s returning starters have already been lost for the year. Washington State managed two wins last season. A repeat performance is about the best the Cougars can realistically expect.
Next up, it’s the ACC in Thursday’s blog.
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