| Dave Cokin's Hardcore Football 9/1/09 (2009-09-01) |
| Sports Handicappers Betting Articles:Dave Cokin |
| The Big East wears the bull’s eye today as my Conference previews continue. As far as the BCS leagues are concerned, this may well be the Big Least this season. Not a single team in the conference resides in my pre-season Top 25. Of course, the glass half full vantage point would be that this at least indicates a terrific battle for the league crown this season.
I’m not sure Rutgers is the most talented team in the Big East. But I think they’ve got the coaching and the schedule to win the league. Greg Schiano has done an amazing job in his eight years with the Scarlet Knights. I’m not at all sold on this team’s skill position players, but the offensive line is great and they should excel at ball control even if they won’t be explosive. The defense is young but talented. The slate is a big plus for Rutgers as they have three non-conference cupcakes and catch both Pittsburgh and USF at home. Rutgers has a legit chance to go 12-0, which could cause an uproar as there’s no way they will be deserving of playing in the mythical title game. I hope it happens, though, as that would be one more knock against the ridiculous BCS.
South Florida is my best team in the league on paper. Matt Grothe has not become the superstar I thought he might become, but he is at the very least a very dangerous weapon at QB. George Selvie is an absolute stud anchoring the defense. The two things working against the Bulls are having to play Rutgers and Pitt on the road, along with what seems to be an inevitable letdown that occurs at least once every year for USF. That has to be pinned on manic coach Jim Leavitt, who I feel would be a better coach if he got himself a bit more under control. USF will have another strong campaign, but will find a way to not win the Big East and land that first ever BCS bowl.
West Virginia was a disappointment last season. New coach Bill Stewart seemed to struggle with his game plans and the Mountaineers lost a couple of early season contests to inferior opposition. I liked the way they concluded the campaign, however, and if senior QB Jarrett Brown works out, this team could be a handful. The defense looks decent. The conference slate works against WVU, however, as they catch USF, Cincy and Rutgers all on the road. If the Mountaineers win this league, they’ll have earned it. I think they’ll fall short.
Pittsburgh seems to be the consensus choice to win the conference. But I’ll bet against that happening. I don’t like their offense much, and to be candid, I think Dave Wannstedt can be outcoached in a big game. The Panthers are only 25-23 under this regime, and I feel they’re an overrated team coming into this season. The defense will be good enough to earn Pitt a winning season and a bowl invite, but I’ll be surprised if it’s anything major.
Cincinnati isn’t supposed to be especially good this year, but I’ve learned not to count out any team coached by Brian Kelly. The Bearcats have only one starters back on defense and teams with that kind of apparent vulnerablity are not supposed to be good. On the flip side, Tony Pike is a veteran QB who knows how to manage a game and Kelly just finds ways to win games. On paper, the Bearcats are way down. On the field, I think they’ll grind out enough wins to garner another bowl bid.
Connecticut seems destined to slide backward this season. Donald Brown may have been the most valuable player in all of college football last season. The Huskies ran 719 plays last season. Brown carried the ball 367 times, which is an incredible ratio. And he managed to average close to six yards per carry, which is unfathomable considering everyone knew what was coming. Brown is gone, and there’s no one to pick up the slack. The QB slot is weak and the defense doesn’t figure to be as strong this year. Call it a transition year for UConn.
I’m surprised Dave Kragthorpe is still running the show at Louisville. Let’s face it, things haven’t exactly worked out since he arrived. The Cardinals dropped to 5-7 last season and they were embarrassingly awful at times. Louisville has a stud RB in Victor Anderson. But the rest of the offense is a huge question mark. Louisville basically tackled by accident last season, so they almost have to be better on that side of the ball. But it looks to me like Kragthorpe is at the end of the plank before the season even starts, and that’s almost always a very bad sign.
Syracuse hasn’t finished above .500 since 2001, and that streak will not end this season. Doug Marrone inherits a cupboard that’s close to bare right now, and the rebuilding process here will likely be lengthy. The Orange starting QB has been playing hoops at Duke the last few years, which is an indicator of how weak this team is presently. The upside is that Syracuse could actually improve immediately with the new coaching staff. But the talent is just not there, and I can’t see more than three wins on the docket this year.
Up next, it’s the PAC-10. Check back on Wednesday for that league’s preview.
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