| Dave Cokin's Hardcore Football 8/27/09 (2009-08-27) |
| Sports Handicappers Betting Articles:Dave Cokin |
| My college conference previews continue today with another of the lesser light leagues. Don’t sweat, the BCS conference rundowns are coming. But there’s not way I’ll ever ignore the non-marquee leagues, as they often end up being the best value on the wagering board for those who follow them closely. Today it’s the Sun Belt Conference.
The SBC has been the bottom of the barrel as far as major college football is concerned. But while this will never be a powerhouse league, several programs are on the rise, and this is probably the strongest the league has been to date.
Troy has been to three bowls in the last five years and longtime coach Larry Blakeney has a great chance to have his team in action come December yet again this season. The Trojans return just 11 starters from last year’s Sun Belt title team. But the key performers on offense are all back, and there’s quite a bit of talent at the skill positions. Senior QB Levi Brown is one of the best unknown players in the country. He’s a great game manager and seldom makes mistakes. Troy won eight games last season and gave both Ohio State and LSU huge scares on the road. This year’s schedule is easier, and I would not be at all surprised to see Troy win ten games en route to another Sun Belt championship.
Arkansas State appears poised to make a move this season, and if they can survive a tough slate that features seven road tilts, the Red Wolves could get to a bowl. This is a deep and experienced entry that will be starting all juniors and seniors. Steve Roberts has a team that’s going to run the ball most of the time and should do it well. Add in the strength on the defensive line in thwarting opposition running games, and it’s a recipe for success. Arkansas State does get to host Troy in late September, and if they can upset the Trojans, a serious run at title honors is not a reach.
Florida Atlantic has only been playing football since 2001, but they’ve moved up the charts in a hurry and I expect Howard Schnellenberger to coach his Owls to a third straight bowl appearance. FAU does have some question marks. The defense is going to be vulnerable early as they return only three starters, and the Owls also graduated their two best running backs. But Rusty Smith is a solid QB and with an extremely deep receiving corps and an experienced OL, this team will score loads of points. Florida Atlantic may start slowly, but I’ll be very surprised if they don’t wind up with at least eight wins and another post-season invite.
UL-Monroe is the dark horse in this year’s Sun Belt. The key to their season will be at QB, where they have to replace Kinsmon Lancaster. There’s a load of experience on this team, so if the new signal caller can minimize mistakes, the Warhawks could be a real sleeper. Charlie Weatherbie’s team was only 4-8 last season. But they beat Troy and just missed shocking Arkansas, so there’s good reason for optimism this time around.
Middle Tennessee returns 15 starters from last year’s 5-7 squad. But they’re breaking in a new QB and they just lost talented WR Eldred King for the season. The Blue Raiders are the best they’ve been since 2006, but the schedule is working against them. They have Troy, FAU and Arkansas State all on the road, so making a run at title contention looks tough. MTSU also has four games with opponents from BCS conferences, which I’m afraid may doom them to a losing ledger despite being an improved team.
Florida International is beginning its eighth season playing football, and this is clearly the best team they’ve fielded. Optimism is running high after a respectable 5-7 2008 campaign and the Golden Panthers gave South Florida a huge scare before going down last season. Mario Cristobal has this program heading in the right direction, and this year’s FIU team is very experienced. My concern with this squad is the running game. They ran for only 99 yards per outing last year, and a meager 2.8 yards per carry. If Darriet Perry can step forward and deliver, FIU could emerge as a major surprise. Otherwise, the Golden Panthers might have to wait one more year for that first-ever winning season.
Louisiana looks to be on the decline this season. The Ragin’ Cajuns have had just one losing season in the last four years. But with Michael Desormeaux no longer calling signals and Tyrell Fenroy no longer running wild, the offense simply is not going to be as explosive as it’s been. They do return their entire offensive line, so there’s some hope, but the losses at the skill spots are severe. The defense has nine starters back, but I’m not sure that’s a real plus, as they couldn’t stop anyone last season. With the majority of the SBC improved, it looks like a tough year for Louisiana.
North Texas used to be the bellwether of this league, but the Mean Green have fallen upon hard times. They have only eight wins over the past four seasons, and most of the losses have been absolute blowouts. They’re likely to be vastly improved in terms of being more competitive this season, but I don’t see it translating into wins. The keys are finding a way to occasionally stop the opposition and better QB play. The defense has a wealth of experience, so that area should be at least a little more respectable. Riley Dodge was high school stud in Texas, and the son of Mean Green HC Todd Dodge will be starting as a redshirt freshman. He’s a big upgrade over what was there previously. North Texas probably won’t win more than a couple times this season, but at least they appear to finally be righting the ship to some extent.
Western Kentucky made its major college football debut last season and predictably struggled. The Hilltoppers managed two wins, but they were against small college opponents. The growing pains will continue in 2009. In fact, they may be weaker than they were in ‘08, as WKU returns only 11 starters. The schedule is tougher than it was last season, and I can’t see more than one win on the slate. But like the rest of the Sun Belt Conference, the Hilltoppers are building and their best days are still ahead of them.
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