By Ron Raymond
March 28th 2007

One of the best betting situation in sports is pulling the trigger on the underdog, as there’s nothing more satisfying then cashing a ticket that has dog money attached to it!

It’s easy to pick the favorites, as the sportsbooks know it’s the first instinct of the novice better that is not informed on the situation leading up to the games. In fact, one of the most common mistake the inexperience gambler will do is watch Sportscentre and see that Roy Halladay is sporting an ERA of 1.23 and is the winner of his last 5 starts and he’s up against a team that is below .500. The obvious choice is the lay the lumber with Halladay and just wait for the results to come in. However, laying big chalk like –200 to –300 or more is not a wise decision! Any professional gambler will never make that play and they will talk you out of that play, as there’s too much risk to lay that kind of chalk, as a lost would set you back a few weeks if you are a 1 unit player. Trust me, there’s nothing worst than starting a new betting season behind the eight ball and before you know it, you’re done for the season in just 2 weeks, as your bankroll would have take a serious hit. 

Betting baseball underdogs in April can be an art, as you have pitchers coming into their ballparks from their pre season fields and just like any sports, defense is always ahead of the offense and according to Grady Little, the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers was quoted saying “…noted that pitchers are usually ahead of the hitters at this time of year.” Therefore, having seen this statement, I went into my trusted database and pulled out the Home Underdog records in April since 1997 to 2006 to find teams who start hot out of the gate at home in April.

Here’s what I found.

TEAMS	SU	O/U/P
Anaheim	17-24	20-17-4
Arizona	8-13	11-10-0
Atlanta	4-2	1-5-0
Baltimore	15-17	13-18-1
Boston	14-4	6-12-0
Chicago White Sox	11-6	6-11-0
Chicago Cubs	10-11	10-9-2
Cincinnati	21-18	17-17-5
Cleveland	5-9	4-9-1
Colorado	18-20	18-18-2
Detroit	20-34	19-32-3
Florida	19-31	26-24-0
Houston	6-3	2-6-1
Kansas City	21-31	30-21-1
L.A.Dodgers	5-6	7-3-1
Milwaukee	27-28	23-29-3
Minnesota	10-24	21-12-1
Was/Mtl	18-25	18-24-1
NYM	5-6	6-5-0
NYY	1-0	1-0-0
Oakland	11-17	12-14-2
Philadelphia	12-15	15-11-1
Pittsburgh	26-36	28-32-2
San Diego	14-20	19-13-2
San Francisco	9-5	6-8-0
Seattle	7-13	10-10-0
St.Louis	4-6	5-5-0

As you can see from the chart above, only 7 teams have a winning Home Underdog record in April and if you break it down a bit more, only 4 teams have a winning record with more than 10 games played. Keep in mind, you don’t need a winning April record to deliver a profit, as 45% or higher record will net you a profit betting underdogs, and I would pay attention to the following teams this April when they are UNDERDOGS at home.

· Baltimore 15-17 (46%)
· Chicago Cubs 10-11 (47%)
· Colorado 18-20 (47%)
· Los Angeles Dodgers 5-6 (45%)
· Milwaukee 27-28 (49%)
· NYM 5-6 (45%)

Although these teams have a losing record, betting on these teams from 1997 to 2006 in April as a Home Underdog, would have net you a profit. As for the O/U point of view, seems Grady Little was right, as the UNDERS seem to have the slight edge for the Home Underdogs in April.

Check my member’s area for my full season baseball package.

Sincerely,

Ron Raymond