| April Home Teams when Total is 7.5 and 8.0 (2007-03-29) |
| Sports Handicappers Betting Articles:Ron Raymond |
By Ron Raymond
March 29th 2007
Normally, when you have a baseball game total of 7.5 or 8.0, you have an ace going up against another ace, or a very dominant pitcher like a Johan Santana of the Twins who’s been un-hittable in his last few starts. So, when you see a line of 7.5 or an 8.0 on the total, what does your instincts tell you? UNDER or OVER?
In fact, I was going to include 7.0 in this article, but there were only 27 games in 2006 with a posted line of 7.0 and when you really think about it, 7.0 is normally set aside for pitchers who are just sick like Pedro and Randy in their prime and it would not bring out a good indication on where to take advantage of this number. Plus, 7.0 and 6.5 are normally playoff type numbers.
But, for this article, I wanted to focus on 7.5 and 8.0 in the month of April, as I feel these are key totals when you have certain pitchers going in different parks at this early stage of the season. Plus, the day we see a Rockies Pitcher hang a 7.5 at Coors field, then we will realize Global Warming has hit the Rockies! In fact, the lowest total I could find at a Rockies game was July 25th 2006 vs. the Cardinals, as Jennings faced Carpenter and July 8th 2006, Jennings vs. Webb of the Diamondback, as the total for both games was 8.5.
Nevertheless, 7.5 and 8.0 are funny numbers, mostly an 8.0, as I see this more of a juiced up American League (7.5), mostly because of the DH role in the AL league. However, you will see from the charts below, the Home Teams and the UNDER are strong factors to consider when betting these totals in April.
|
Teams |
SU |
O/U/P |
|
Arizona |
15-5 |
12-8-0 |
|
Anaheim |
4-5 |
4-5-0 |
|
Atlanta |
35-15 |
19-27-4 |
|
Baltimore |
4-4 |
3-4-1 |
|
Boston |
6-2 |
4-4-0 |
|
Chicago White Sox |
3-2 |
2-2-1 |
|
Chicago Cubs |
14-18 |
11-21-0 |
|
Cincinnati |
4-2 |
3-3-0 |
|
Cleveland |
3-4 |
2-5-0 |
|
Colorado |
- |
- |
|
Detroit |
0-2 |
1-1-0 |
|
Florida |
24-15 |
19-19-1 |
|
Houston |
16-8 |
10-11-3 |
|
Kansas City |
0-4 |
1-2-1 |
|
Los Angeles Dodgers |
38-25 |
29-31-3 |
|
Milwaukee |
7-7 |
7-7-0 |
|
Minnesota |
3-0 |
2-1-0 |
|
Wash/MTL |
12-17 |
13-15-1 |
|
NYM |
32-27 |
23-32-4 |
|
NYY |
3-3 |
2-4-0 |
|
Oakland |
11-4 |
9-4-2 |
|
Philadelphia |
11-12 |
16-7-0 |
|
Pittsburgh |
11-20 |
17-13-1 |
|
San Diego |
27-32 |
27-26-6 |
|
San Francisco |
14-8 |
9-13-0 |
|
Seattle |
12-16 |
11-16-1 |
|
St.Louis |
13-6 |
10-7-2 |
|
Tampa Bay |
0-2 |
1-0-1 |
|
Texas |
0-1-0 |
1-0-0 |
|
Toronto |
2-4 |
2-4 |
As you can see, teams with strong pitching history like the Mets, Braves, Astros, A’s, Cards and Dodgers have more occurrences and winning records. Whereas teams like the Cubs, Phillies, Pirates, Mariners and Padres have the occurrences, but just a losing history and Jekkyl and Hyde pitchers.
In a nutshell, until the salary cap hits the Major League Baseball side of things, the level playing field is still tilted towards teams with deep pockets, as they will be the ones who will be able to keep their top aces. But for teams like Arizona and Florida who have decent young arms, you can compete with a good scouting staff and a bit of luck on your side.
Nevertheless, what about Pitchers in April you ask? As you can see, the pitchers are clearly ahead of the batters, as most of the totals you see above lean in favor towards the unders.
Here’s a list of pitchers I feel will have the 7.5 and 8.0 game total tag beside their starts this April and I’ve included their past April Records and Overall records when the line is posted at 7.5 and 8.0.
|
Pitchers |
April SU |
April O/U/P |
Overall SU |
Overall O/U |
|
Santana |
1-0 |
1-0-0 |
27-5 |
15-17-0 |
|
Carpenter |
1-0 |
1-0-0 |
15-4 |
11-8-0 |
|
Halladay |
0-3 |
0-3-0 |
15-4 |
2-12-2 |
|
Webb |
1-0 |
0-1-0 |
8-7 |
6-9-0 |
|
Oswalt |
4-2 |
3-3-0 |
20-10 |
14-16-0 |
|
C.Zambrano |
2-1 |
1-2-0 |
13-13 |
18-7-1 |
|
Peavy |
3-2 |
2-3-0 |
18-17 |
16-18-1 |
|
Sheets |
1-2 |
1-2-0 |
14-17 |
1-16-5 |
|
Willis |
1-1 |
2-0-0 |
19-19 |
19-19-0 |
|
Sabathia |
1-2 |
1-2-0 |
7-8 |
5-9-1 |
|
Schmidt |
6-4 |
6-4-0 |
32-27 |
32-26-1 |
|
Smoltz |
7-2 |
2-7-0 |
34-18 |
25-25-2 |
As you can see, the dominant pitchers when the line is set at 7.5 and 8.0 at home are pretty solid pitchers and if it weren’t for the month of April, Roy Halladay would be unbeatable at home! In fact, you can’t overlook Doc Halladay at the Rogers Centre, as the UNDER is 12-2-2 when the total is 7.5or 8.0 since 2002. But you may want to skip his April starts, as indicated by his record in April.
Hopefully this article will help you out at the beginning of the season when you make your selections.
Sincerely,
Ron Raymond |
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