By Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond
October 10th 2007
After further review, I’ve come to the realization that handicapping sports boils down to one conclusion and that is; “common sense is just a misconception”. In fact, when it comes to sports handicapping, we as human beings are very paranoid and skeptic by nature because we remember the bad beats and nobody’s around to listen to the good ones.
Nevertheless, we seem to over analyze everything that seems too good to be true and we are guilty of “paralysis by analysis” too many times when going over each game. Why is it when we handicap a game that makes too much sense, we have the right side or total, we need to dig deeper to believe it’s too good to be true? Common sense equals misconception.
Ever since the sports world brought in the salary cap for each sports league except baseball, it has brought parity which has thrown everybody in the sports betting world for a loop, and true wise guys, are in research and development mode to gain back the edge. What use to be common sense is just a mirage these days and the way the numbers have fallen the last 3 years, has made allot of sharp players return to the drawing board.
After further review, I’ve noticed the Strength of Schedule (SOS) has really brought a misconception to allot of good teams who are really bad teams. Case and point, the New Orleans Saints were a power house last season, but they started the year against Cleveland, Green Bay, Atlanta, Carolina and then Tampa Bay. That’s 5 teams who didn’t make the playoffs and now they are 0-5 SU because their SOS was not as soft as it was last season. The St.Louis Rams, a team who finished with an 8-8 record last year, started the 2007 campaign against Carolina, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Dallas and Arizona. Four of the 5 teams mentioned are teams with winning records. What does common sense tells us about this situation? Does it mean the law of averages will revert back next season for the Rams and they will start the year 5-0? I doubt it, but parity and a soft schedule can sure help.
Another common sense approach is the injury report; sometimes we see the first stringer whose out for the next game, our first instinct is to think that team will lose because we don’t have confidence in the back up replacement. Let’s face it, when we heard Trent Edwards was the Bills starting QB against the Jets and Cowboys, what was your common sense telling you? Just for the record, I did take the bills in both cases; but I know allot of people who jumped ship. Another common sense approach we take each week, the due factor. When a line comes out and you see a team is just winning or covering the spread, our common sense tells us that team is “due to lose”. Case and point, how many times did you go against the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 to 5? Was it common sense or history that told us this team is due to bury you like they did in the past?
One of the most common sense handicapping terms you hear in the sports betting world is the famous “gut feeling” pick. Don’t you just love that pick from a sports handicapper who tells you, the reason why I love this pick is because of my “gut feeling”. You know what, I’m ok with that at times, because if it’s from a person whom I respect who has many years of experience and is a true hardcore gambler, then he knows what’s around the corner at times, compared to the newbie who wants to know what the abbreviation “ATS” stands for. I normally tell them it means “Always Tip Stupid”! (kidding)
Another angle I like to handicap is the discipline factor; teams who are well discipline and don’t take too many penalties. When you think about a lost, what normally bites you in the ass after you think why a team lost the game? Turnovers and Penalties! These my friends are the number one reasons why football teams lose football games and good handicappers have methods of taking these two aspects of the game into their handicapping methods. Let’s face it, if the Buffalo Bills and the Minnesota Vikings were better discipline teams, they would be 3-2 and 3-1 respectively. How else do you explain the Bills lost to the Cowboys on Monday night? If you ask me, discipline and bad coaching cost them that game.
In fact, when you look at the “good to be lucky and lucky to be good” file, the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers are lucky to be in their current situation, as the Broncos could easily be 0-5 right now. But it just goes to show you, sometimes common sense is just a misconception and what we use to take for granted in the handicapping world, we must really dig deep.
After further review, I leave you with this food for thought. If common sense was so easy to handicap, why is it that any NFL Home Favorites of -3.0 points or less this 2007 NFL season, are 3-8-5 ATS? Wouldn’t common sense normally tell us that home favorites are normally the team to bet on? Now you see what I mean about common sense is just a misconception?
Good luck with your picks this week.
Ron Raymond | 
