After Further Review Week 5
By Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond
October 4, 2007
Do you remember that Cheers episode when Norm Peterson walks into the bar and Sam ask him how’s it going and Norm replied; “it’s a dog eat, dog world and I’m wearing mild bone underwear!” Well, that pretty much sums up the current situation in the world of NFL Football betting. The underdogs are eating up the players and the books are “smiling like a butcher’s dog”, as the old Pittsburgh Penguins broadcaster announcer Mike Lange would say. Which reminds me you fans in Pittsburgh, get him back in the booth, the hockey world needs more Mike Lange’s!
If you recall, the books got totally annihilated in 2005, as the favorites won 57% of the games and because the public loves to bet on favorites, as they rarely like to take risk, the books nearly went bankrupt and some books never recovered and just went out of business. However, here’s the thing, nobody seen it coming in 2005, as through week 1 to 4, the favorites had only won 46.6% of their games, while the Dogs covered 53% of the time. However, things turned in a hurry and the rest as they say is history.
Which brings me to my current article for After Further Review Week 5; I’m wondering if we are living the same experience as in 2005, but in role reversal. You see, the Underdogs have covered 61.4% of the games throughout Week 1 to 4 this season, but have only won 40% of their games, as the Favorites have won 59.6% of their game straight up. Normally when a team wins straight up, they usually cover the spread in the process. But that’s not the case this season.
After Further Review my good friends, here’s what I’ve dug up from the last 3 season. In 2004, the Underdogs won 50% of their games through week 1 to 4, but only won 35% of their game straight up. Pretty much stayed the same the entire 2004 season, as the dogs won 52% of their games that year and won 37% of their games straight up. Favorites covered 48% of their games that season and won 62% of their games SU.
In 2005, or should I say the “Year of the Squares”, the dogs won 53% of their games from week 1 to 4, but got smoked the entire season, as they only managed to cover 43% of the spread the rest of the year, winning 28% of their games straight up. Favorites dominated from Week 5 to the Super Bowl, covering 57% of their games and winning 72% of their games straight up. May the books who got buried that season still rest in peace! Too bad Aces Gold wasn’t part of that group, as it would have been a bitter sweet moment for players who got stiffed by that shady Sportsbook. But I digress….as they say!
On to the 2006 season, Law of Averages sort of kicked back in, but the damage had been done the season prior. Throughout Week 1 to 4, the dogs won 50% of their games and won 35% of their games straight up. But, through week 5 to Super Bowl, they covered the spread 57%, but here’s where nobody seen the cover coming, as they won 40% of their games straight up, compared to 28% in ’05. Big time difference here, as the Dogs in ’06 didn’t have a big of a spread total as in ’05. This my friends, what’s called posting a bad line in ’05 or as somebody with more clout told me once, “…Somebody had their heads up their ass to post those lines in ‘05”. In order for this to happen, that means the books were way too generous in ’05 with their Favorite numbers, whereas you see more of a tighter line in ’06 that encourage the betting public to bet more on the favorites.
Which brings us up to Week 5 of the 2007 season; the Underdogs have shown their bite early, as they’ve covered 61.4% of their games thus far, winning 40% of their games straight up. This is the highest total of dogs winning since 2002, where the dogs covered 62.7% of their games through week 1 to 4 and won an amazing 45% of their games straight up.
Therefore, After Further Review, I think it’s just a matter of time before the favorites start winning again, but when you start seeing the Arizona Cardinals as a -3.0 point road favorite in week 5 vs. an 0-4 Rams team, you really need to bite the bullet and just say what the hell! Show me the money!
Good luck with your picks this weekend.
Ron Raymond |
