Ron Raymond is a Sports Handicapper and the founder of Phoenixsports.com.
When you’re handicapping NFL Football matchups, you’re always looking for value in the team in which you’re going to support. Keep in mind, the Las Vegas Sportsbooks job is to find equal action on the NFL lines they release, this way they don’t get hammered with too much action on one side of a game. For example; let’s say in week 1 of the 2009 season, the Dallas Cowboys are a 3 point road favorite vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the over/ under is set at 41.5 points. If 75% of the betting public are predicting and putting their money on the Dallas Cowboys and should they win by 7 points vs. Tampa Bay, the books are going to take a big bath on this game and it could affect their bottom line for the next few weeks. Especially in this case, as the Dallas Cowboys are what we call a “public team” which means they have a huge following of supporters who are not real gamblers and they will throw their money on the Cowboys because that’s their team.
Therefore, the Offshore Sportsbooks and the Las Vegas shops will make sure to adjust their NFL Betting lines once the action starts to pour in on the Cowboys. If they see 75% of the early action is coming in on the Cowboys, they will start moving the line to -3.5 or maybe -4.0 to see if they can get the NFL bettors to start betting on Tampa Bay. Normally, when you see the line move on games like this one, it’s an early indication on which team is getting the action. Furthermore, because of the volume the Sportsbook receive on NFL Betting, it’s hard to say if it’s sharp money or if it’s an indication the Cowboys are the public play.
NFL Prediction Tip: Don’t read much into NFL line moves involving public teams, because a good majority of the money being bet on is from fans who like this team. I’m talking about teams with high profile players like New England (Brady), Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger) and Indianapolis (Peyton Manning).
NFL Prediction Forecast
Looking for line value is very important when it comes to making your NFL picks on Sundays, because there’s so much information to gather and because parity has never been so strong in the NFL, it’s key to have the right sports handicapping tools like the ATS Calculator or the ATS Database.
What exactly is value betting NFL games and how do you know when you have it? In my experience betting on NFL games, you can find value in many ways, line movement, law of average betting, public perception, contrarian betting, parity value index or betting against or with the percentages. As I mentioned above, parity has given us unexpected Super Bowl matchups in the last 10 years and teams like Arizona gave us some good value betting on them in 2008, as they were 13-7-0 ATS and covered their last 5 games.
Using the 2008 season as our betting guide, here are teams I feel will give us some line value in the first month of betting NFL football and you may want to consider them when making your NFL predictions.
Ron's Week 1 NFL Predictions
- Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 vs. Denver (Week 1): The Bengals finished the 2008 season at 4-11-1 SU and 7-9-0 against the spread. The Bengals are 16-6 SU as a home favorite and the o/u is between 44.5 and 47.
- Cleveland +2.5 vs. Minnesota (Week 1): Consider the UNDER in Week 1 when the Browns meet the Vikings, as the UNDER is 9-3-0 for Cleveland as a home team before a Road Game (Denver) during Week 1 to 4 since 1983. The Browns went 4-12 SU last year and 6-9-1 ATS.
- Jacksonville +7.0 at Indianapolis (Week 1): In my view, the Jaguars were probably my biggest disappointment last season, finishing the year at 5-11 SU and even worst against the spread at 4-12-0. However, since 1995, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-1-2 (ATS) Against the Spread vs. division opponents as a Road Underdog between week 1 and 4.
- Kansas City +9.0 at Baltimore (Week 1): The Chiefs will have a new look on offense this season, but they will want to put the 2008 season behind them, as they finished 2-14 SU, but .500 record against the spread at 8-8-0. At first glance, getting +9 points on the road with the Chiefs with a new QB Matt Cassel at the helm seems like great line value, but when digging into the Chiefs betting history as a road underdog, I’ve come up with some depressing numbers. When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a +7 to +9.5 Road Underdog and the total is between 37 and 41; the Chiefs are 0-11-1 SU and 3-9-0 against the spread since 1983. Furthermore, the Chiefs are 2-10 SU as a +7 or more Road Underdog during Week 1 to 4. If you want line value, this is a great play on the Chiefs, as long as you can ignore the facts I’ve mentioned.
- Detroit +11.5 at New Orleans (Week 1): Probably the best line value play of the week, as the Lions went without a win (0-16 SU) during the 2008 NFL season and a good part of the betting public will no doubt bet against them in Week 1. However, it would be a wise selection to bet on them during Week 1 vs. the Saints, as the Lions are 4-0-0 ATS as a +10 or more Road Underdog during Week 1 to Week 4.
- Seattle -7 vs. St.Louis (Week 1): The Seahawks finished with a 4-12 SU record and 8-8-0 ATS record last season, but they could be worth a look in Week 1 vs. the Rams as a -7 point home favorite. Since 1987, the Seahawks are 5-0 straight up and against the spread as a -7 point home favorite vs. a division opponent during Week 1 to 4.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM TIP
Keep your eyes out on high scoring teams who are a small favorite and they are coming off a Monday Night football game, as their odds of covering the spread in their next game is pretty good. Here’s the exact betting system to monitor.
NFL BETTING TIP: When ANY NFL teams played as a -3.0 or less Favorite, After a Monday night game and they are coming off 2 overs; The Favorite is 13-6-1 ATS and 14-6 SU in this role since 1983.
