NFL Monday Night Football Picks
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One of the best things about sports betting at the beginning of a new season, you and the bookmakers are starting from scratch for the upcoming season and basically the opening lines are based on the pre-season games which have no meaning towards the regular season. Granted, you have some data from the past season, but there are so many off-season transactions now in the off-season and with the salary cap, parity does have a say in what will transpire each year.
Which brings me to not one, but the two Monday night games which will be played during week 1. Ray Lewis and the Ravens travel to Cincinnati to face Chad Johnson and the Bengals in the early game and for the nightcap, you have Arizona heading to the West Coat to play the Mike Nolan’s San Francisco 49ers.
Now the reason I’ve chosen these two games for Week 2, I’ve done some research and found an angle that you may want to consider for Week 2. It’s been said time and time again, players and organization make a heavy pitch to play on Monday night, as it’s the “focus” game of the week where you have a national audiences attention and you are the only game in town for that day. Whereas as a Sunday night game, you need to share the game highlights with the other 13 games, which were played ahead of you that Sunday.
In sports handicapping, this is known as the Monday night hangover or the proverbial “letdown” spot. For novice bettors, the “letdown” situation is when you have a team coming off an emotional upset win as a Underdog or when there was a high media focus on a game, such as the case was for the Saints last year, when they returned to play their first home game after the Katrina disaster.
Now, here’s what I’ve done. I went through my sports betting database and queried, “When any away team in Week 2 is coming off a Monday night game in Week 1”. The results were not earth shattering for the side, as the away team is 7-11 SU and ATS the next game, but there was a noticeable advantage with the total, as the UNDER is 10-5-3 for 67.7%. Cincinnati will travel to Cleveland in Week 2, I anticipate Cincinnati to be a Road Fave between –3.0 to –4.0 with the O/U at around 44.0 and San Fran travels to St.Louis and I look for the Rams to be a –3.0 to –4.5 point chalk with the O/U set at 44.0 to 45.0. I’m going to strongly consider the UNDER in both of these games, and keep in mind, the defenses are always ahead of the offenses, so that fits our game plan here. However, here’s the downside of releasing these types of betting articles, the bookmakers will read this and perhaps make an adjustment, but who knows!
Here are some prior teams who were in this situation for Week 2.
For Team NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2002-09-15 (W2) 2002 New York Jets New England Patriots -1.50 42 7 44
ATS Winner: New England Patriots
SU Winner: New England Patriots
Total Result: O
Surface: Turf
For Team DENVER BRONCOS
1999-09-19 (W2) 1999 Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos 3.50 40.5 26 10
ATS Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
SU Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
Total Result: U
Surface: Grass
For Team OAKLAND RAIDERS
2006-09-17 (W2) 2006 BALTIMORE RAVENS OAKLAND RAIDERS -13.00 34 28 6
ATS Winner: BALTIMORE RAVENS
SU Winner: BALTIMORE RAVENS
Total Result: T
Surface: Turf
For Team DALLAS COWBOYS
22 1983-09-11 (W2) 1983 Arizona Cardinals Dallas Cowboys 6.00 43 17 34
ATS Winner: Dallas Cowboys
SU Winner: Dallas Cowboys
Total Result: O
Surface: Grass
257 1984-09-09 (W2) 1984 New York Giants Dallas Cowboys 5.00 46 28 7
ATS Winner: New York Giants
SU Winner: New York Giants
Total Result: U
Surface: Turf
1985-09-15 (W2) 1985 Detroit Lions Dallas Cowboys 5.50 45.5 26 21
ATS Winner: Detroit Lions
SU Winner: Detroit Lions
Total Result: O
Surface: Dome
1986-09-14 (W2) 1986 Detroit Lions Dallas Cowboys 2.50 44.5 7 31
ATS Winner: Dallas Cowboys
SU Winner: Dallas Cowboys
Total Result: U
Surface: Dome
1992-09-13 (W2) 1992 New York Giants Dallas Cowboys 3.00 38 28 34
ATS Winner: Dallas Cowboys
SU Winner: Dallas Cowboys
Total Result: O
Surface: Turf
For Team WASHINGTON REDSKINS
1983-09-11 (W2) 1983 Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins 0.00 40 13 23
ATS Winner: Washington Redskins
SU Winner: Washington Redskins
Total Result: U
Surface: Grass
2006-09-17(W2) 2006 DALLAS COWBOYS WASHINGTON REDSKINS -7.00 37 27 10
ATS Winner: DALLAS COWBOYS
SU Winner: DALLAS COWBOYS
Total Result: T
Surface: Turf
For Team NEW YORK GIANTS
1995-09-10 (W2) 1995 Kansas City Chiefs New York Giants -7.00 37 20 17
ATS Winner: New York Giants
SU Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
Total Result: T
Surface: Grass
For Team GREEN BAY PACKERS
1997-09-07 (W2) 1997 Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers 7.50 43.5 10 9
ATS Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
SU Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
Total Result: U
Surface: Grass
For Team CHICAGO BEARS
1996-09-08 (W2) 1996 Washington Redskins Chicago Bears 0.00 41.5 10 3
ATS Winner: Washington Redskins
SU Winner: Washington Redskins
Total Result: U
Surface: Grass
For Team CAROLINA PANTHERS
2004-09-19 (W2) 2004 Kansas City Chiefs Carolina Panthers -7.00 46.5 17 28
ATS Winner: Carolina Panthers
SU Winner: Carolina Panthers
Total Result: U
Surface: Grass
For Team NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
1990-09-16 (W2) 1990 Minnesota Vikings New Orleans Saints -6.50 39.5 32 3
ATS Winner: Minnesota Vikings
SU Winner: Minnesota Vikings
Total Result: U
Surface: Dome
For Team ATLANTA FALCONS
2005-09-18 (W2) 2005 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ATLANTA FALCONS -2.00 43 21 18
ATS Winner: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
SU Winner: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Total Result: U
Surface: Turf
For Team ST. LOUIS RAMS
2000-09-10 (W2) 2000 Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams 8.50 46 34 37
ATS Winner: Seattle Seahawks
SU Winner: St. Louis Rams
Total Result: O
Surface: Turf
For Team SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
1994-09-11 (W2) 1994 Kansas City Chiefs San Francisco 49ers 3.00 46.5 24 17
ATS Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
SU Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
Total Result: U
Surface: Grass
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